Friday, May 18, 2007

ETS ESP   [Chris Horner]

As noted here, Europe plans to announce next month that its year-over-year greenhouse gas emissions in dropped in 2005, by -0.8% below their 2004 level. As you see from the following chart, that 2004 level is not much to write home about when claiming one is the "world leader in reducing greenhouse gas emissions", as Europe seems monomaniacally obsessed with leading the world to believe is their situation.

If you see any emission reductions in there, there's a job waiting for you in Brussels. One is tempted to say this resembles a, oh I don't know, Hockey Stick. Now, given that 2005 was the first year for the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), we will doubtless be treated to breathless EU claims about how the ETS brought down emissions. Not so.

Knowing the truth is important because of the sales pitch presently emanating from Democratic (and select Republican) legislative enthusiasts of adopting Europe's rationing scheme here joined by, I am reliably informed, our own EPA which apparently would love such authority. So, time for the cold water of reality.

I know a little German (Top Secret! fans only, please)...and he tells me that sufficient data are widely enough available to know not only that this 2005 reduction was a product not of ETS glory, but of Germany's economic downturn — the one that resulted in early elections ousting Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder from office — but, with both the economy and the emission reduction turning around in 2006, EU GHG emissions are back up to their 1990 level (and CO2 emissions are way, way up).

As such, it is important that the congressional delegation heading over to Brussels and various EU ports of call next week to hear about this bear in mind the truth about Europe's ETS performance and impacts. After all, the junket is being led by Senate Energy Committee Chairman Jeff Bingaman (D-NM), who has proven not all that interested in presenting a balanced view of Europe's effort to translate our Clean Air Act's cap-and-trade regulation of an actual pollutant, sulfur dioxide (SO2 being an impurity) to carbon dioxide (which happens to be the ubiquitous intentional product of combusting hydrocarbons; the more efficiently you combust them the more CO2 you get).

Planet Gore provided the service of telling folks what they wouldn't hear during Sen. Bingaman's previous ETS session here, here, and here. It is amazing how wondrous something sounds when the roster is stacked with people who designed or have positioned themselves to make money off of it. More of the same should be expected.

As such, here's a little more about the EU emission reduction that will soon be trumpeted yet which has already been erased:

"German CO2 emissions will continue to rise in 2007

Deutscher Depeschendienst, 28 April 2007

Because of unexpectedly strong economic growth, German CO2 emissions
will presumably continue to rise this year. "We expect a rise of 1% for
2007 in comparison to the previous year", said DIW climate expert
Claudia Kemfert...

Energy-intensive industries such as chemistry, metal, paper and
aluminium are mainly responsible for the increasing CO2 output by German
industry. In absolute numbers, the DIW estimates that CO2 will rise by
somewhat more than eight million tons, said Kemfert. Thus, the entire
level of C02 emissions in Germany will rise from the present 878 million
tons to 886 million tons, if no further action on climate protection is
taken. .....

According to calculations by the German Ministry of Environment, German
CO2 emission also rose in 2006, compared to the previous year. In
absolute numbers, the 2006 CO2 emissions rose by 5 million tonnes,
equivalent to a 0,6% rise......

Just so one doesn't think we're picking on the Germans, who after all are the biggest EU economy, note that the large UK economy faces the same reality, imminent propaganda notwithstanding:

"Point Carbon

UK companies taking part in the European emissions trading scheme emitted 251.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2006, an increase of 8.8 million tonnes or 3.6 per cent from 2005, the Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said today."

05/18 12:44 PMShare